It's probably safe to say 2023 wasn't as bad as anticipated. Will 2024 keep crypto on its winning streak?
On January 3, Bitcoin, and cryptocurrency in general, will be 15 years old. Not old enough to drive yet, but old and able to do some really stupid stuff while making you wonder at the thing you created (I speak as a parent of a five-year-old but I assume things don't differ too much).
In comparison to last year's time, optimism and greed reign. Prices are rising, dumps last a short time and crypto is slowly making its way back into polite society. What can we expect in 2024? What's next?
SOL is now the new ETH
This one is prefaced with a disclaimer. Ethereum ain’t going anywhere. And there will most likely be a point next year where people laugh at the OG Layer 1 and then it rips so hard that it can even be heard in space.
Solana has now established itself as the obvious heir to Vitalik’s baby. Solana is now firmly established in the top five by market capital. Over the past month, Solana, at various points, has overtaken ETH for DEX volume and NFT transactions, as well as stablecoin usage. Money is flooding in, and it's starting to spread around the ecosystem as unlit rocket fuel.
It's very likely that many of the 100x coins for the bull market of 2024 will be found on Solana. Be careful, though: the chances of you hitting the jackpot will be slim and Solana has a low entry barrier that makes scams and rug pulls commonplace. For instance, there were 5000 coins released on December 22. Enjoy yourself, place small bets and prepare to cash out your winnings because infernoes can burn themselves out suddenly.
The King takes his throne
When crypto markets make a sharp left turn and enter the ridiculous zone, it's easy to view Bitcoin with the same kind of snobbish affection reserved for those in their 80s. It's great that you earned 20%. My life savings were multiplied five times in just two days when I invested them into something called Pooblaster, whose website was a video showing a dog's poop being shot into space. (Note to Self: Launch this coin on SOL.
Let's not forget, however, that we are doing this again because the largest asset manager in the world decided to promote a Bitcoin ETF. By the time this newsletter is published, the ETF may be available.
It's not a guarantee that the market will always be on the rise (people enjoy shorting ETFs). It is certain that Bitcoin will remain the central point of crypto-currency and the rest the world.
Stability is a sexier option than anything else
Since months, I have been wanting to write about stablecoins, but let's face it, they aren't that exciting.
They are still important. The flow of stablecoins in or out of the market is one of the best indicators of market health. In October, the value of stablecoins began to rise for the first since early 2022. Since then, crypto markets have gained US$670 Billion in value. Although the inflows of money are minor, the fact that they have stopped is enough to bring about a sort of equilibrium.
Stablecoins serve as much more than market indicators. Stablecoins make up at least 80% the volume of all crypto transactions on any given day. Stablecoins may be the killer app for crypto. Stablecoins are easy to use, understand and serve a purpose.
Stablecoins are a great way to preserve wealth in countries where the currency is volatile or weak. They can also facilitate trade. Others are looking to fill the gaps left by the international banking system. As stablecoins spread and grow, it is worth keeping an eye out on who uses them, where they are going and what the powers-that-be want to do.
Infinite complexity
In 2021, I had a moment of clarity when I realized that, as a full-time crypto worker, I was utterly clueless about what was going on.
This next cycle will be the same as that, but a thousand times better. It's about alternative L1s such as SOL and AVAX creating thriving crypto ecosystems that rival Ethereum, with their own DEXs DAOs NFTs.
There are also inscriptions which is a controversial method of building NFT data packets directly into the information on the blockchain. People started with Bitcoin but are now putting inscriptions in any chain that they believe they can get some value out of, including L1s such as ETH and SOL whose only purpose is to facilitate these types of transactions. Oh good, now my nose is bleeding.
RWAs, or real world assets, allow you to tokenize ownership of anything from real estate, to sports teams, to art, to cars, to watches, to the right to hug The Rock. (This doesn't yet exist, but Dwayne could make it so). Then there's the gaming industry, which has a huge market and could become its own crypto universe.
It's going to get even more chaotic from here on out, so concentrate on the things you know, the ones you like, and accept the fact that you'll feel as if you're being told everything in ancient Sumerian.
History does not repeat itself
Bitcoin is halved every four years. Three boom-bust cycles of four years have occurred on the crypto market. Coincidence? Or is it predestined fate?
It's easy to believe that it will be the same as before, and it may well be! Trading is a great example of a truism: if you believe something will happen, it won't. This time around, there are many geopolitical headwinds and macroeconomic challenges that did not exist in the first decade of crypto.
Be as bullish as you like about 2024 - I'm sure I am – but be aware that things can quickly change and that the moment you are most certain of something, is also the moment that you lose your certainty.
Enjoy your New Year, you filthy degens. We'll see you in 2024. Pooblaster 2, tha moon.
Luke for CoinJar
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